Another Country Heard From

What the heck, I'll weigh in on Floyd Landis' test results at the Tour. I don't know anything about endocrinology so all this is based on my layman's view. If anyone out there can clear up any misconceptions I might have, please let me know.

Here's what I think we know now:

1) The average guy has a testosterone to epitestosterone ratio around 1:1

2) A 4:1 ratio is the highest ratio legal for cycling

3) Floyd's ratio of testosterone to epitestosterone suddenly spiked to 11:1, from previously tested levels up to but not over 4:1

4) He tested positive for synthetic testosterone (unnatural carbon isotope ratios)

5) His absolute levels of testosterone stayed relatively constant throughout all tests, negative and positive, so the 11:1 ratio was caused by a drop in his epitestosterone of at least 64% (if his previous ratio was a max T:E of 4:1, then a 64% drop in the E would result in around 11:1, and if his previous ratio was less than 4:1, then we need an even greater percentage drop in E to account for the spike. E.g. if he were an average male at 1:1, we need a 91% drop. Wow. I hope my math is correct there.)

Possible "Floyd is GUILTY" Scenarios

1) Floyd was juicing all along with synthetic T and E, carefully managing his ratio to keep it below 4:1, but ran out of, or forgot, or incorrectly measured the E in his latest dose before the test, accidentally spiking the ratio. (Oopsie!)

2) Floyd took just enough synthetic testosterone to boost his levels of T back up to where they were before, but failed to boost his levels of E to make sure he would test below the 4:1 ratio. This would imply he was monitoring his natural levels of T and E very carefully and noticed a big drop, and that the synthetic testosterone was administered by someone who was a bumbling idiot or didn't have any epitestosterone handy. Also, by most accounts, the effects of the dose wouldn't have been seen for at least several days, so taking a single dose seems silly. (Oopsie again.)

Possible "Floyd is INNOCENT" Scenarios

1) The lab intentionally or incompetently got both ratio tests and the isotope test wrong. (The French are sick of Americans winning their Tour, and are willing to sacrifice the reputation of the Tour and the sport of cycling.)

2) Someone slipped Floyd a dose of synthetic testosterone without him knowing it, and coincidentally, Floyd just happened to have a huge drop in his natural T and E levels at the same time, and his drop in natural T levels matched the amount he received from the secret dose. (Uh huh. Riiiight.)

3) The positive ratio test was correct, but the synthetic test was a false positive, and Floyd had a natural drop in epitestosterone (at least 64%) without a corresponding drop in testosterone. (Can that even happen? What do the experts say?)

4) The experts in the field of testosterone and epitestosterone don't know enough about it, and someday we'll find out that the body can naturally produce testosterone of varying isotope ratios that look synthetic, and that the ratio of T to E in the body can fluctuate wildly under stress of bonking, having a couple beers, and eating French cuisine. (Hey, you never know.)

Possible Defense Strategies?

If the samples haven't been discarded and it's possible to do so, it seems Floyd could help his case by ordering his urine from previous drug tests tested for synthetic testosterone. If they all come back negative, then that effectively rules out guilty scenario number one and leaves him with only one scenario where he's guilty, and a complicated and bumbling one at that.

Attack the lab and other authorities for their lack of procedure and link their reputation for leaking results to their trustworthiness. Discredit the B sample result by showing that the lab wouldn't have been blinded during the test because of the leaked information, and that bias may have skewed the results. Getting the B sample result thrown out could then result in getting the isotope result thrown out, and although he'd probably still be guilty, he could get away with it because of the lab's shoddy procedures.

Unless Floyd can come up with a reason his natural epitestosterone dropped suddenly irrespective of his levels of testosterone, and a reason why the synthetic testosterone test would read a false positive, it would seem he's going to be guilty of doping, whether or not he gets away with it because of procedural problems by the lab or cycling authorities. I hope someone smarter than I can come up with a defense that can prove Floyd is truly innocent, but I won't be holding my breath.

It seems the most likely scenario has Floyd being guilty, and having been on a regimen of careful doping all along with one screw-up at an inopportune time. That's sad, and I'm considering deleting the coverage I have recorded on the hard disk and not burning it to DVD. That was several wasted hours of cheering in front of the television I'll never get back. Watching professional cycling seems a little like watching professional wrestling now.

I have to go ride my bike now. See you on the road.